A National Perspective
Since 2002, the United Methodist Church in the U.S. has lost 52,000 attendees each year. This annual loss has been persistent over the past 12 years, seemingly undisturbed by influences inside and outside the church. A continuation of this decline for another 36 years ends with the disassembly of the denomination as we know it. However, this need not occur. In fact, the Benchmark Strategy, combined with other important efforts in place, ensures a turnaround of the decline by 2021. This would mark the first mainline denomination in the U.S. to return to sustained growth.
Spending deficiencies is expected to average $39,930 in the church’s operating budget—some being lower and some being higher. Over the 3-year period for participation in a Benchmark Project, the participating church will increase total spending for programs and non-clergy staff, for the sole purpose of growth, by an average of $119,790. This will result in an average gain in worship of 52 attendees and an increase in giving by $80,000 (some more and some less). To reverse a decline of 52,000 attendees per year, it will take 998 participating churches, increasing annual budgets by a total of $39,850,000 to reverse the decline and return to growth. The 3-year investment in growth totals $120 million—enough to stimulate growth in worship attendance sufficient to reverse the decline by 2021—within 7 years if 998 participating churches are secured.
Other programs must also be successful if the turnaround it to occur. There is to be a predicted shortage of elders serving local churches in the U.S. numbering about 5,000 by 2030. Successful clergy recruitment must expand if the turnaround is to occur. The continuing establishment of new churches must continue. There must be at least 665 new churches established between 2009 and 2030. There must be a continuing emphasis upon clergy and laity leadership, and attraction of young families into church membership.
To maintain geographic representation, the total of 998 participating churches must come from every jurisdiction.
To the extent possible, participating churches should represent every annual conference to ensure geographic spread. Between 2009 and 2030, there is a predicted closure of 7,700 local churches. Strategic placement of new church starts and the location of participating churches will help limit the loss of counties in the U.S. in which there is no United Methodist presence.
Read about the Benchmark Project Perspective