National Study
There have been a number of National Studies contemplated for forecasting the sustainability of the Methodist denomination. The Church Benchmark Project (CBP) has taken a more sophisticated approach than those considered in the past in an effort to paint a more accurate portrait of the denomination's future. The Church Benchmark Project's sophistication resides in the fact that it makes use of extensive data collections and appropriate statistical tools of analysis. The Church Benchmark Project utilizes data from end-of-year local church reports, clergy pension records, demographic information about the US population, physical addresses of the churches, measures of inflation, records of mergers of annual conferences, life expectancy tables, and attendance patterns among other mainline denominations. Additionally, the Church Benchmark Project has developed a rich body of evidence which includes the use of completed studies of new church starts, the impact of debt upon the local church, drivers of church growth, and local church spending patterns.
The National Study includes various working components. A worship attendance component incorporates the known drivers of worship attendance. This component incorporates new church starts and predicts church closures. The clergy component identifies every elder and provisional elder in the denomination. The component “ages” each elder and predicts the time of retirement and death. It incorporates new elders into the denomination, each having his or her own assigned age and gender. It separates elders into two groups: those seeking appointments in the local church and those seeking employment beyond the local church. A local church component identifies local churches seeking elders as appointed clergy.
The National Study provides an aggregated forecast to the Methodist denomination in its entirety. The Church Benchmark Project has applied a similar forecasting process to both the conference and local church levels of the denomination. Each variant of the model provides actionable information for church leaders at various connectional levels to discern the future and implement policies that will affect positive change throughout the denomination.
